Door Rik Klein Entink, geplaatst op zaterdag 17 oktober 2009, 16:00. Views: 5.

Een hoofdstuk uit het boek 'Secrets of Short-handed Pot-Limit Omaha', door Rolf Slotboom and Rob Hollink.

In dit hoofdstuk bespreekt Rob Hollink op zijn bekende wijze een hand die hij headsup speelde tegen Phil Galfond, ook wel bekend als OMGClayAiken.

Hand #31: $200-$400 Pot Limit Omaha (HU)

Heads up against OMGClayAiken. I am the short stack with $31,000 chips. We are playing $200 $400; I am in the big blind and out of position.

Seat 3: Rob Hollink ($31,383) | posts the BB of $400
Seat 4: OMGClayAiken ($82,584) | posts the SB of $200
Rob Hollink:

Preflop: pot = $600/two players

OMGClayAiken raises to $1,200
Rob Hollink () raises to $3,600
OMGClayAiken calls $2,400

OMGClayAiken raises to $1,200 and I reraise to $3,600 with K J 10 5ds. He calls. I have been unsure about reraising out of position for a long time. At the moment, I increasingly get the feeling that one can do it profitably, although it will always be a risky business and bad for your nerves. The reason I am more confident with it nowadays is probably because I have developed a better feeling for the post flop play. So at the moment I think I can reraise a lot of hands out of position in a profitable manner, because my post flop game has become better. Maybe next year my thoughts on this will be totally different.

Flop (pot = $7,200/two players)

Rob Hollink () checks
OMGClayAiken bets $4,800
Rob Hollink raises to $21,600
OMGClayAiken folds
Uncalled bet of $16,800 returned to Rob Hollink

Summary

Rob Hollink won the pot on the flop and gained $8,400
OMGClayAiken folded on the flop and lost $8,400

Flop, turn, river and conclusion

K Q 6 with two hearts is the flop. I check, he bets and I raise to $21,600. He thinks for some time and gives up. Many of you will say, "OK, so?" I agree there isn't much action, but it is still interesting to compare the possible ways to play this flop. There is $7,200 in the middle and I have $28,000 left, the exact amount for a check raise. Before I start, I like to say that check folding is not an option for me in this hand. I don't like the hearts, but nevertheless, I am not check folding. Further, I would like to say that our calculations will start on the flop situation with the $7,200 in the middle that belongs to nobody. So, my options are bet fold, bet call and check raise. Let's try to find out which of three ways of playing is the best. I think the right way to look at this situation is to have an idea of how our opponent will play all different holdings. First of all, we can say that our opponent's hand on the flop can be divided into the following groups:

• A The total miss
• B The half hit, worse than our hand
• C The half hit better than ours
• D Full hit

It's time to look at the different situations.

A.1 He totally missed, and he would check behind

In this case a flop bet from us would have been fine. A flop bet will have a result of +$7,200. How do we reward the flop check? A check check on the flop will make things more difficult on the turn. A turn bet will mostly do the job, a check on the turn could make things even more difficult. Because the situation now starts to get unclear and looks worse than the flop bet, I simply have to reward the check check on the flop worse than the $7,200. I give it a value of $5,000.

A.2 He totally missed but decides to bluff, after we checked

Here a check raise from our side would be optimal, and he of course would never call because he was just bluffing. Assuming he will bet $5,000 after we checked, we have to reward the check raise with $12,200. Again a flop bet will give us $7,200. B.1 He did hit half, just a bit worse than we did and he would check behind

For instance A-Q-J-10 or K-10-9-8. Whenever he checks behind, I assume that he would never have raised our flop bet. So I assume that he would have folded 25% to our flop bet and would have called 75%. Now we have to try to give value to a flop bet. Well, 25% of the time he folds, so that brings: 0.25 * $7,200 = $1,800 value. Whenever he calls it's very unclear who is favorite, so it looks obvious to award this situation with a value of $3,600 (50% of what was in the pot on the flop). So, 0.75 * $3,600 = $2,700. We see that the flop bet is worth $1,800 + $2,700 = $4,500. A check on the flop from both sides will again result in a situation where it is difficult to say who is favorite. With us having the better hand, I value this as $4,500. So, if he had checked behind and wouldn't have raised a flop bet, then betting would have been as good as checking.

B.2 He did hit half, a bit worse than we did and he would bet the flop after a check from us

For instance, his hand could be A-Q-J-10 or K-10-9-8. Also we assume here that he would have raised in the case where we did bet the flop. I have to make another important assumption: how often do I call, when reraised? Getting odds of 2-to-1, we have to figure out if my hand is worth 33% against the range that he is raising here. I think this might be pretty close. So I would like to assume that I call the raise 75% and fold then the other 25% of the time. I also like to assume that my hand is worth 60%. When I fold my value is $5,000 (my turn bet). When I call, we can roughly say that I can win $35,200 and that I can lose $28,000. The total picture for betting and getting raised is then: 0.25 * $5,000 + 0.75 * (0.60 * $35,200 + 0.40 * $28,000) = $6,190.

We take a look at the check raise here. Again we are going to calculate assuming that he will make a $5,000 bet. Our opponent is facing the 2-to-1 odds, even with a hand a little bit worse than ours. I let him fold 30% and I give him a 70% call percentage. Again our hand against his hand has 60% worth. So, the math says, our check raise result will be: 0.3 * $12,200 + 0.7 * (0.6 * $35,200 + 0.4 * $28,000) = $10,604. In this situation the check on the flop is a lot better than the bet.

C.1 He did hit half, just a bit better than we did and checks behind

Let's say his hand was A-K-10-8 or K-8-7-6. A check check on the flop I like to reward as 40% of what is already in the pot. Our opponent is checking and trying to keep the pot small, which is good for us. We are 60/40 behind, so 40% of what is in the middle already, which is about $2,900, looks like a reasonable estimate. Now we have to look at the situation where I bet the pot. I assume that he will call our flop bet 50% of the time and raise the other half of the time. Whenever he calls our flop bet, it's clear we are an underdog. We just put in $5,000 and the total pot is now $17,200.

Most of the time, all the money will go in on the turn, except when a heart comes; in that case, it looks as if we have to check fold the turn. So let's assume I will check fold 25% on the turn and in the other 75% I will go all in being 60 40 behind. Assuming a raise from his side on the flop, we again call 75% of the time and now our hand is also 60 40 underdog. It looks as if the result will be the same when he calls or raises our flop bet. We fold 25% and call the other 75%, being 60 40 behind. So betting in this spot is worth: 0.25 * ? $5,000 + 0.75 * (0.4 * $35,200 + 0.6 * $28,000) = $3,970.

We got a clear answer again: checking is a lot stronger than betting.

C.2 He did hit half, just a bit better than we did and bet after we checked

Say A K 10 8 or K 8 7 6 could be his hand. So if we would bet the flop, he would raise and we have to decide whether to call or not. Just like under C.1, we calculate with us calling the raise 75% and folding the other 25%. The math says: 0.25 * $5,000 + 0.75 * (0.4 * $35,200 + 0.6 * $28,000) = $3,970.

When we check raise the flop, I see him calling a 100%. This makes check raising worth 0.4 * $35,200 + 0.6 * $28,000 = $2,720.

Again the check scores a bit better: $2,720 versus $3,970.

D He hit the flop really well, let's say top two or better; so actually he will always bet if we check, and he will always raise if we bet

Against these hands we will be roughly 75/25 underdog.

Check raising brings us: 0.25 * $35,200 + 0.75 * $28,000 = $12,200.

Betting and calling the raise 75%: 0.25 * $5,000 + 0.75 * (0.25 * $35,200 + 0.75 * $28,000) = $10,400. Now the bet makes the better result.

Summary

We gave our opponent four different possible holdings, and three out of four with two ways to play these hands. All our opponent's flop actions can be found in these seven groups. In each of the seven different situations we tried to make reasonable assumptions that would lead to exact and useful figures. Now we have to try to add probabilities to all the groups, the total being 100%.

Below are the probabilities the way I see them.

(Klik voor vergroting)

First of all, I am happy that betting and check-raising both have positive results. Like I said in the beginning, check-fold is no option for me (note that : Check-fold has result 0) and I was right. Further I am also glad that my other feeling, this is preferring check-raising over betting was also right. Some people will argue about my assumptions and of course they can never be a 100% correct. But the big differences in results strengthen me in my feelings that I played the hand the right way.